Statements by Dr. Andrei Radulescu, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at BT, for Ziarul Financiar:

• The adjustment induced by the pandemic is a historic opportunity for Romania, an economy that has recorded a trade deficit over the past three decades and is currently facing a low level of digitalisation and lagging critical infrastructure.

• Now is the best time to accelerate smart, efficient investment, step up digitalisation, modernise critical infrastructure, rebalance the economy, and rediscover Romania (by directing demand towards goods and services produced in Romania and starting the shift from quantity to quality).

• It is the best time because Romania has natural, financial and human resources, and the cost of these resources is currently competitive.

• Romania’s economy could enter a new cycle as early as the end of this quarter, as restrictions are lifted, with its trajectory shaped by the following: low real financing costs (and the prospect that they will be sustained in the medium term), greater labour-market flexibility, the impact of economic support measures implemented (globally, at European, regional and domestic level), and an acceleration in digitalisation and investment in critical infrastructure.

• On digitalisation, Romania has the resources but, unfortunately, ranks second from the bottom in the EU on the digital economy index (according to European Commission data). The pandemic has highlighted the importance of digitising companies’ workflows.

• Romania has significant agricultural potential, and the transition to intensive, smart agriculture is beginning to show up in the data, with yields per hectare for wheat, corn and sunflower now above those in Poland. Even so, Romania has posted a trade deficit in live animals and food in recent years. Now is the time to rebalance this, and to do that we need to consume Romanian products.

• In the short term, the number-one priority is the rapid implementation of measures to bring annual GDP growth back into positive territory. After that, we need to accelerate structural reforms to turn potential into reality. Compared with the Great Recession, Romania is no longer dependent on international financing; we have resources at home — the key is to put them to work quickly through the most efficient possible allocation.