Economic activity remained modest in the second quarter of 2026. The economy contracted by 2.0% YoY, following a 1.1% decline in Q1. On a quarterly basis, GDP stabilized (0.0% QoQ, seasonally adjusted), after contracting by 0.1% in Q1 2026.
Inflation eased significantly in July, with annual CPI inflation declining to 8.16% from 10.42% in June. However, consumer prices increased by 0.58% MoM, compared with only 0.06% in the previous month.
The budget deficit reached 2.34% of GDP in July (cash terms), well below the 3.99% recorded in the same period of 2025. Government debt increased to 60.1% of GDP in Q1, exceeding the 60% threshold for the first time. Economic sentiment weakened, with the confidence indicator edging down to 92.6 in August from 92.8 in July, although it remained above the 91.7 recorded in June. Its position below the long-term average continues to signal cautious expectations among businesses and consumers.
The EUR/RON exchange rate remained broadly stable, averaging 5.25 in August, compared with 5.24 in July. The NBR maintained its policy rate at 6.50%, while the 3M ROBOR remained unchanged at 5.84%.
The unemployment rate declined to 6.3% in June from 6.4% in May. The monthly trade deficit widened to EUR 2.96 bn in June, bringing the cumulative deficit for the first six months of 2026 to EUR 16.4 bn. Nevertheless, the cumulative deficit narrowed by approximately 2.0% YoY compared with the same period of 2025.
