Economic activity remained modest at the start of 2026. The economy contracted by -1.1% YoY in Q1 2026. On a quarterly basis, GDP stabilized (0.0% QoQ, seasonally adjusted) following a sharp decline in Q4.
Inflationary pressures intensified, with CPI rising to 10.71% YoY in April, up from March. Monthly inflation stood at 0.84% MoM, pointing to persistent underlying pressures.
The budget deficit reached -1.17% of GDP in April (cash terms), improving compared to last year (-2.92% of GDP). Economic sentiment showed tentative improvement, edging up slightly, although remaining below its long-term average.
The EUR/RON exchange rate depreciated in May (to an average of 5.23), indicating increased FX pressures. The NBR maintained the policy rate at 6.50%, while ROBOR 3M edged slightly lower in May, to an average of 5.85%.
The external position shows early signs of adjustment. The trade deficit remains elevated, 10.81 bn euro in the first four months, but has narrowed compared to the previous year (-7.0% YoY).
