How the week of April 13–19 looked globally and in Romania, based on indicators tracking the COVID-19 context:

• The global daily pace of new cases continued to decline, so that by the end of last week it was at its lowest since March 12. This trend was driven by restrictive measures in Europe and the United States.

• As of April 19, the global recoveries-to-confirmed-cases ratio stood at 25.8%, the highest since March 23.

• In the United States, the daily number of newly confirmed cases shifted from an upward to a downward trend: from over 35,000 on April 10 to just over 24,000 by the end of last week, the lowest since March 31.

• Several European Union countries announced a gradual easing of restrictions: Germany, Austria, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Poland and Spain.

• In Romania, the daily pace of new confirmed cases continued to slow, and the recoveries-to-confirmations ratio reached its highest level since the beginning of March (21.6% on Sunday, April 19). On April 20, newly confirmed cases totaled 190, the lowest since March 31.

• Fitch Ratings revised Romania’s sovereign rating outlook to Negative from Stable amid deteriorating public finances following the onset of the pandemic. Fitch analysts expect the budget deficit to widen to 8% of GDP in 2020 as revenues fall.

• China’s GDP fell 6.8% year on year in the first quarter as the pandemic shock took hold. Recent macroeconomic indicators point to improving conditions in recent weeks and a V-shaped adjustment, with a rebound likely from the second quarter after the sharp contraction in Q1.

Dr. Andrei Radulescu, Head of Macroeconomic Research, Banca Transilvania