A summary of last week’s developments in pandemic indicators:

Worldwide:

• The daily growth rate of confirmed cases, on a 10-day moving average, was 1.76% on June 21, close to the level recorded on June 14. Although the 10-day moving average is around its early-March lows, the number of new confirmed cases hit a record on Friday, June 19 (over 177,000), driven by developments in North and South America.

• The total number of confirmed cases worldwide is approaching 9 million.

• The global recoveries-to-confirmed-cases ratio continued to rise last week, to almost 50% on June 21, near the highs seen on March 12. That is an increase of 1.8 percentage points versus June 14.

US: The 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases increased by almost 16% between June 14 and June 21, reaching over 25,600, the highest since May 10. The total number of confirmed cases since the start of the pandemic stands at 2.28 million, placing the US first worldwide. The recoveries-to-confirmed-cases ratio continued to rise to over 27% on June 21, up 0.5 percentage points compared with June 14.

Germany: The 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases rose by over 50% between June 14 and June 21 to almost 460, the highest since May 30. The recovered-to-confirmed ratio decreased by 0.4 percentage points over the same period to over 91%. The reproduction rate increased to 2.88 on Sunday, reflecting outbreaks identified in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Romania:

• New confirmed cases exceeded 300 for the fifth straight day on Sunday. The 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases has increased for a third consecutive week, up nearly 37% between June 14 and June 21, to 286, the highest since May 12.

• The recovery rate reached over 70% on June 21, down 1.1 percentage points from June 14.

• Active cases rose by over 15% between June 14 and June 21, to 5,622, the highest since May 22.

Spain, which ranked seventh worldwide last week by confirmed cases, exited the state of emergency and reopened its border with European Union countries as of June 22.

At the summer summit, European Union leaders did not reach an agreement on the European Commission’s proposed economic recovery plan.

Volatility in international financial markets eased compared with the prior week, on signals of economic recovery and expectations that monetary policy will remain accommodative over the medium term in the world’s main economic blocs.

Australia plans to introduce new restrictions in Melbourne.

Switzerland lifted most restrictions starting today, June 22.

Dr. Andrei Radulescu, Director, Macroeconomic Analysis, Banca Transilvania