In Romania:

• New confirmed cases (10-day moving average) — trending down toward the 30 March low. Between 17 May and 24 May the indicator decreased by 23.1%.
• The recovery rate continues to trend higher, reaching 63.1% at the end of last week and a record high, up 4.5 percentage points versus the level at the end of the week of 11–17 May.
• From the perspective of net case dynamics (10-day moving average, day-over-day change), a broad-based improvement can be seen, including in Romania, where the values have been negative for the 18th day in a row — a very good signal. The improvement is also visible worldwide, two examples being the US and Germany, where the values have been negative since 13 April. The improvement can also be seen globally, but especially in Germany, where the values have been negative since 13 April.
• Net confirmed cases (total confirmed cases – deaths – total recovered) are trending down toward the 14 April low, after the record reached on 29 April.

Worldwide:

• The daily growth rate of confirmed cases worldwide (10-day moving average) continued to decline toward the 4 March low (1.97%). This is down from 2.04% at the end of the previous week. Brazil has become the new epicenter of the pandemic.
• The global recoveries-to-confirmed-cases ratio continued to trend higher, toward the highest since 17 March (almost 40%). That is up from 36.51% at the end of the week of 11–17 May.
• US: the number of new confirmed cases (10-day moving average) is around early-April lows. The recoveries-to-confirmed-cases ratio has increased to 22.3% (up four percentage points versus the level at the end of the week of 11–17 May).
• In Germany the indicators continued to improve. New confirmed cases (10-day moving average) are declining toward the 15 March low, and the recoveries-to-confirmed ratio increased to 88.9% (a record), up 1.6 percentage points versus the level at the end of the previous week. Investor confidence rose in May toward the April 2015 high, a development that points to the economy picking back up in the period ahead after the recent decline caused by the pandemic and its consequences.
• Germany and France’s leaders reached an agreement to create a EUR 500 billion economic recovery fund at EU level.
• Italy reported no deaths in Lombardy, which had been the epicenter of the pandemic.
• Greece is reopening restaurants and cafes as of today, and schools from 1 June.
• Japan signaled the lifting of restrictions in Tokyo.
• China scrapped its 2020 growth target amid pandemic-driven uncertainty, but signaled a USD 500 billion program to support economic recovery.

Dr. Andrei Radulescu, Director of Macroeconomic Research, Banca Transilvania