Developments over 9 – 16 August this year, in the context of the pandemic, were as follows:

Romania:

• The 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases rose by 3.2% to 1,257 between 9 August and 16 August. On 15 August this indicator reached a record 1,282. The recovery rate fell for the seventh week in a row, down 2.5 percentage points between 9 August and 16 August, to 46.2%, the lowest since 10 May. Net/active cases have been increasing for the tenth consecutive week, up 20.5% between 9 August and 16 August, to 34,883 (an all-time high). Excluding asymptomatic cases, the increase over the period was 19.2%, to 26,902, also a record.

• On a 10-day moving average basis for net cases, Germany posted positive readings for the 27th consecutive day, while Romania stayed in positive territory for the 65th straight day as of 16 August.

• Romania’s economy contracted by 4.7% year-on-year in H1, with the brunt of the pandemic-induced shock recorded in Q2: a 10.5% year-on-year decline. The economy is now at the beginning of the post-pandemic cycle. 

• The current account deficit narrowed by 20% year-on-year in H1, and foreign direct investment rose for the third month in a row in June.

• The positive tone on international financial markets has strengthened, with the US S&P 500 equity index trading near all-time highs.

• The daily growth rate of confirmed cases worldwide (10-day moving average) stood at 1.28% on 16 August, down from 1.39% on 9 August. This is the lowest since 28 February.

• Total confirmed cases reached 21.7 million on 16 August, up by 1.8 million versus 9 August.

• The global recoveries-to-confirmed cases ratio continued to trend higher last week to almost 63% on 16 August (a record), up 2.1 percentage points compared with 9 August.

In the United States, which accounts for almost 25% of total confirmed cases worldwide, there are more than 5.4 million confirmed cases to date. The 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases declined for a third consecutive week, down 5.3% between 9 and 16 August, to 52,000, near the lows seen at the start of July. On Sunday, 16 August, 42,936 new cases were reported, the lowest since 29 June. The recovered-to-confirmed ratio increased by 1.1 percentage points over the period, to almost 34%, a record.  

In Germany, the 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases continued to rise last week, up 28.6% between 9 and 16 August, to 997, close to the highs from early May. The recoveries-to-confirmed cases ratio fell by 1.1 percentage points over the period, to 89.4%, the lowest since 25 May.

Dr. Andrei Radulescu, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis, Banca Transilvania