How last week looked in the context of the pandemic, according to the main indicators:

• The daily pace of confirmed cases worldwide (10-day moving average) continued to decline toward the March 5 low.

• The global recoveries-to-confirmed-cases ratio continued to trend higher, toward the March 19 peak (34.2%).

• US: new confirmed cases (10-day moving average) reached the April 5 low. The economy shed 20.5 million jobs in April, but about 88% of these were temporary layoffs. The US unemployment rate rose to 14.7% in April, the highest since the 1930s (the Great Depression).

• Germany: new confirmed cases (10-year moving average) hit a low on May 10, the lowest since March 17, and the recovery rate continued to trend higher, to around 85% (an all-time high). Germany will continue to roll back restrictions; the Bundesliga will resume in mid-May, but behind closed doors.

• In Italy, new confirmed cases and deaths fell toward early-March lows, and Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte signaled an earlier-than-planned lifting of restrictions, originally scheduled for June 1.

• The United Kingdom signaled a gradual easing of restrictions.

• Romania: New confirmed cases (10-day moving average) are on a downward path (with zig-zags) after the record high of 366 set on April 18. The recovery rate continues to trend higher, to around 46% by the end of the week. The Ministry of Health announced a possible nationwide testing campaign starting in June, to assess the degree of immunity in the population and the spread of the coronavirus.

• China: auto sales rose 0.9% y/y in April, the first month with positive annual dynamics since mid-2018, while rail freight volumes increased 2.4% y/y in the first four months of 2020—developments that support a V-shaped economic rebound, a scenario also signaled by improving investor risk appetite on international financial markets (the NASDAQ Total Return index ended Friday’s session at a level just 5% below the all-time high set in February).

Looking at the dynamics of net cases (10-day moving average of the day-to-day change), a broad-based improvement is evident worldwide, including in the US, Germany and Romania. Net confirmed cases in Romania (total confirmed cases minus deaths minus total recovered) are on a downward trend; net cases peaked on April 29.