Ömer Tetik, CEO of Banca Transilvania, made the following remarks at the Profit Financial.forum conference, organized by Profit, on the effects of the current macroeconomic environment. He also underlined the importance of government programs for the business community, as well as the essential role of a profitable, well-capitalized banking sector in supporting the economy:

• The current macroeconomic environment is not affecting only certain industries; the impact is expected to spill over across the economy. So far we are not seeing a direct impact — more of a second-round effect.
  
  
• Consumption is declining. Some people have less disposable income because of tax changes or adjustments to their contracts; others are more cautious and are taking measures. As a result, consumption is lower than in previous years.
  
  
• We are not seeing an impact at this point in terms of rising non-performing loans (NPLs). I believe most of us — not just the banks — learned the lessons of 2007, 2008 and 2009. For now, the main impact is on consumption, but in the near term there should be some adjustment as well. And of course, Black Friday and Christmas are coming up.
  
  
• There is demand for credit. It is not very strong, but it is concentrated in key sectors such as agriculture, energy and infrastructure. We hope this will also have a positive impact on other parts of the economy.

• We were looking forward to government programs, because the absence of schemes like IMM Invest has been felt. Even if not all SMEs benefit directly, these programs encourage businesses to make plans; if they don’t qualify, they still try to implement those plans using their own resources or bank financing. In short, they build confidence.
  
  
• The impact of the bank tax this year is over RON 400 million. For next year, we estimate it at over RON 650 million. That amounts to almost a doubling of the corporate income tax. We therefore hope this measure is temporary, because banks need to be profitable.
  
  
• For a growing economy, we need well-capitalized, profitable banks and investors who are encouraged to invest in banks.