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Andrei Radulescu, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis, Banca Transilvania: Five Considerations on the Current Macroeconomic Context

COVID INFORMATION
7 May 2020
READING TIME: 1 MINUTE
Andrei Radulescu, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis, Banca Transilvania: Five Considerations on the Current Macroeconomic Context

 

  • The pandemic is a shock to globalization and international trade and should be seen as an opportunity for countries running trade deficits. It is Romania’s biggest opportunity since the fall of communism.

 

  • Accelerating digitalization has become a necessity in the wake of the pandemic, and Romania has strong ICT resources (a high contribution to GDP; a sector that is competitive globally).

 

  • This is Romania’s chance to invest efficiently in critical infrastructure: healthcare, education, roads and rail.

 

  • Low real financing costs, a robust banking sector and significant growth potential are the ingredients we have to move from quantity to quality — a fundamental aspect of sustainable development.

 

  • COVID-19 falls into the category of natural shocks; the more severe the impact this year, the more important the rebound next year. The V-shaped recovery scenario is supported by the improvement in investor confidence in Germany and by the significant gains in stock market indices in recent weeks, a trend driven by having passed the pandemic’s peak and the gradual lifting of restrictions.

 

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