How the week of 19–26 July looked in pandemic indicators, both in Romania and worldwide.

Romania:

• The number of new confirmed cases kept climbing, with an all-time high of 1,284 reported on Saturday, 25 July. On a 10-day moving average, new confirmed cases increased by almost 47% between 19 and 26 July, to 980 (a record high).
• Romania ranks second in the European Union, after Spain, by the increase in new confirmed cases over the past two weeks.
• The recovery rate fell for the fourth week in a row, down 3.1 percentage points between 19 and 26 July, to over 57%, the lowest since 15 May.
• Net/active cases have been rising for the seventh consecutive week, up more than 32% to an all-time high. Excluding asymptomatic cases, the increase was nearly 29% between 19 and 26 July, to 13,396 cases.

Worldwide:

• The daily growth rate in confirmed global cases, on a 10-day moving average, was 1.64% on 26 July, down from 1.68% on 19 July, near the lows seen in early March.
• Total confirmed cases reached over 16.2 million on 26 July, up by 1.7 million versus 19 July.
• 37 countries recorded an increase in new cases last week. Daily new confirmed cases hit record highs in the U.S., Spain, Australia and Japan.
• Over the past two weeks, the top 10 countries by new-case reports are: the U.S., Brazil, India, South Africa, Colombia, Mexico, Russia, Argentina, Peru and Bangladesh.
• The global recovery-to-confirmed ratio continued to trend higher last week, to almost 58% on 26 July (a record high), up 1.7 percentage points from 19 July.

U.S.:

• The U.S., which accounts for over 26% of all confirmed cases worldwide, has reported more than 4.2 million confirmed cases to date.
• The 10-day moving average for new confirmed cases continued to rise last week by 0.4%, to 65,777.
• On Sunday, 26 July, 56,000 new cases were recorded, the lowest since 20 July.
• The ratio of recovered to confirmed cases increased by 0.7 percentage points, to almost 31%.
• States currently seeing the fastest acceleration are Puerto Rico, Alaska, Mississippi, Missouri, Delaware, Indiana, Maryland, Kentucky and Wyoming. The most severe increases in new confirmed cases per 100,000 inhabitants were in Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi, Arizona and Tennessee.

Germany:

• The 10-day moving average for new confirmed cases rose by almost 40% to 522 between 19 and 26 July, reaching levels last seen at the end of June.
• The recovery-to-confirmed ratio stood at 92% on 26 July, down 0.5 percentage points from 19 July.
• Looking at net cases on a 10-day moving average, Germany posted positive values for the sixth consecutive day, while Romania was above zero for the 44th consecutive day as of 26 July.

China: The number of new cases reported has risen towards the spring peak.

Australia, Hong Kong and Spain (Catalonia) have reimposed restrictions to counter the intensification of the pandemic.

EU leaders reached agreement last week on the post-pandemic economic recovery programme (Next Generation) and on the 2021–2027 Multiannual Financial Framework.

The Eurozone economy returned to growth in July (based on PMI indicators), as restrictions put in place to tackle the health crisis were gradually lifted and the unprecedentedly accommodative policy mix made itself felt.

The euro continued to appreciate against the U.S. dollar last week, towards the highest level since September 2018.

Dr. Andrei Radulescu, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis, Banca Transilvania