The daily growth rate in confirmed cases worldwide, on a 10-day moving average, was 1.76% on July 5, down from 1.80% on June 28, and around the lows seen in early March. Even so, the number of new confirmed cases hit a record on Wednesday, July 1 (over 218,000), and the total surpassed 11.4 million on Sunday, July 5. The US, Brazil and India are experiencing the sharpest acceleration of the pandemic.
The global recoveries-to-confirmed-cases ratio continued its upward trend last week, reaching nearly 54% on July 5, the highest since March 10. That is up 3.3 percentage points from June 28.
In the US, which accounts for over 25% of global confirmed cases, the 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases rose by 29.6% to over 46,600 on July 5 (a record). On July 3, more than 54,000 cases were confirmed (an all-time high), and the recoveries-to-confirmed-cases ratio increased by 4.5 percentage points to over 31%, near February highs. Arizona, California, Florida and Texas are the states seeing the fastest spread. In New York, the global epicentre of the pandemic in March and April, pandemic metrics have stabilised at record lows. New York City is entering Phase Three of reopening on July 6, but without indoor dining.
In Germany, the 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases fell by almost 15% to 415 (the lowest since June 19), while the recoveries-to-confirmed-cases ratio increased by 0.7 percentage points to 92% (a record) last week. The reproduction rate rose from 0.71 on June 28 to 0.96 on July 5, remaining below the critical threshold of 1 for the 12th consecutive day, according to the Robert Koch Institute.
In Romania, there were 391 new cases on July 5. The 10-day moving average increased for the fifth straight week, up 14% between June 28 and July 5, to 369, around record highs. The recovery rate reached 69.1% on July 5, down 2.4 percentage points from June 28. Active cases have been rising for the fourth consecutive week, up over 22% between June 28 and July 5, to approximately 7,200, the highest since May 11.
On the 10-day moving average of active cases, Germany posted declines for the fourth straight day, while Romania posted increases for the 23rd straight day as of Sunday, July 5.
The US added jobs for the second month in a row in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 11%. China, the world’s second-largest economy, accelerated in June.
European Union leaders decided to reopen external borders to 15 countries starting July 1: Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia, Uruguay and China.
Dr. Andrei Radulescu, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis, Banca Transilvania
