A summary of how the indicators tracking the current pandemic have evolved is as follows:

• The global daily growth rate of confirmed cases, on the 10-day moving average, was 1.73% on July 12, down from 1.79% on July 5, and is near the lows seen in early March.
• New confirmed cases hit a record on Friday, July 10, at over 227,000, and the cumulative total neared 12.9 million on Sunday, up by 1.5 million versus July 5.
• The US, Brazil, India and South Africa are seeing the fastest growth in new confirmed cases.
• The global recoveries-to-confirmed-cases ratio continued to rise last week, reaching 55.07% on July 2 (the highest since March 8), up by 1.1 percentage points compared with July 5.
• In the US (25.7% of worldwide confirmed cases), daily confirmed cases topped 60,000 per day last week. The 10-day moving average stood at 56,565 (a record) on July 12, up 21.3% versus July 5. The recoveries-to-confirmed-cases ratio declined by about 1 percentage point to 30.4% last week. On July 12, New York City reported zero COVID-19 deaths. In early August, the state of New York will decide on reopening schools.
• In Germany, the 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases fell by 14.5% to 355 between July 5 and July 12, the lowest since June 17. The recovered-to-confirmed ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 92.2% on July 12, close to the record 92.3% on July 9. The reproduction rate moved back above the critical threshold of 1 after three weeks, according to estimates from the Robert Koch Institute.

Romania:

• Reported an acceleration in new confirmed cases last week, with a record 698 on Saturday, July 11. The 10-day moving average rose for the sixth consecutive week, up 29.9% between July 5 and July 12 to 479, an all-time high. 
• The recovery rate, which stood at 66.2% on July 12, reached its lowest level since late May, down 2.9 percentage points compared with July 5. 
• Net/active cases increased for the fifth straight week, by 26.5%, to 9,106 (an all-time high). Excluding asymptomatic cases, the increase was 19.3%, to 7,264 cases.  

Other details:

• The global economy contracted for a fifth consecutive month in June, but at a slower pace, according to the Composite PMI.
• In Romania, fixed investment rose by more than 10% year-on-year in Q1 for the fourth consecutive quarter, pointing to the prospect of a swift transition from the post-crisis cycle to the post-pandemic cycle.
• Several countries have announced restrictions for Romanian citizens amid the increase in new cases in Romania, including Hungary and Austria. 

Dr. Andrei Radulescu, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis