The evolution of the indicators tracking the pandemic over 13–19 July was as follows: 

• The global daily growth rate in confirmed cases, on a 10-day moving average, was 1.68% on 19 July, down from 1.73% on 12 July, near the early-March lows.
• The number of new confirmed cases hit a record on Sunday, 19 July: over 343,000. The total neared 14.5 million, up by 1.6 million versus 12 July.
• The US, Brazil, India and South Africa are seeing the fastest growth in new confirmed cases.
• The global recovered-to-confirmed ratio continued to rise last week, reaching over 56% on 19 July (an all-time high), up by 1.1 percentage points versus 12 July.  
• In the US, which accounts for over 26% of all confirmed cases globally, confirmed cases hit a record of over 78,000 on Thursday, 16 July. The 10-day moving average stood at over 65,500 on Sunday, 19 July, up by almost 16% compared with 12 July. The recovered-to-confirmed ratio fell by about 0.5 percentage points between 12 and 19 July, to 30%. In New York State, the global epicenter of the pandemic in March and April, hospitalisations fell to their lowest since 18 March. New York City moves into phase four of reopening today. Gyms, museums and malls will remain closed, and the reopening of indoor dining has been postponed.  
• In Germany, the 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases rose by 5.2% to 373 between 12 and 19 July, the highest since 11 July. The recovered-to-confirmed ratio stood at over 92% on 19 July, up by 0.2 percentage points versus 12 July. The reproduction rate stayed above the critical threshold of 1, at 1.25 on 19 July, according to estimates from the Robert Koch Institute.

Romania:

• The number of new confirmed cases continued to increase last week, with a record 889 cases on Saturday, 18 July. The 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases rose by 39.3% to 667, a new all-time high.  

• The recovery rate fell for the third consecutive week, down 5.8 percentage points between 12 and 19 July, to over 60%, the lowest since 21 May.

• Net/active cases increased for the sixth consecutive week, up 40.7% to over 12,800, a new all-time high. Excluding asymptomatic cases, the increase was 43% between 12 and 19 July, to 10,390 cases.  

European Union:

• The countries with the highest number of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the past two weeks were: Luxembourg (152), Sweden (57.3), Portugal (46.9), Bulgaria (42.3) and Romania (41.8).

• EU leaders are negotiating in Brussels the post-pandemic economic recovery package proposed by the European Commission.

• In Romania, construction output accelerated in May in year-on-year terms, while the current account deficit narrowed for the fourth consecutive month (y/y).

China’s economy returned to growth in Q2 (3.2% y/y), after the 6.8% y/y contraction in Q1 caused by the pandemic and its fallout.

Dr Andrei Radulescu, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis, Banca Transilvania