Based on last week’s trends in the indicators tracking the pandemic, the following points emerge:

Romania:

• The 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases increased by 2.2% to 1,218 between August 2 and August 9. On August 8 this indicator reached a record 1,239.
• Romania ranks third in the European Union, after Luxembourg and Spain, for the cumulative number of new confirmed cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the past two weeks. It is followed by Belgium, Malta, Bulgaria, Sweden, Iceland, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and France.
• The authorities have indicated that schools will reopen starting on September 14 under three scenarios (green, yellow and red).
• The recovery rate fell for the sixth consecutive week, by 3.1 percentage points between August 2 and August 9, to just over 48%, the lowest since May 12.
• Net/active cases increased for the eighth week in a row, by almost 25% between August 2 and August 9, to 28,949 (an all-time high). Excluding asymptomatic cases, there was a 22.7% increase between August 2 and August 9, to 22,578 cases, also a record.
• Looking at the dynamics of net cases (10-day moving average), Germany recorded positive values for the 20th consecutive day, and Romania posted values above 0 for the 58th straight day as of August 9.

Worldwide:

• The daily growth rate of confirmed cases worldwide (10-day moving average) stood at 1.35% on August 9 (down from 1.55% on August 2), the lowest since February 29.
• Total confirmed cases reached 19.8 million on August 9, up by 1.7 million compared with August 2. The countries that reported the most new confirmed cases last week were the United States, Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Mexico, Peru, Colombia, Chile and Iran.
• The global recovery-to-confirmed cases ratio continued to rise last week, to over 61% on August 9, a record high, up by 2 percentage points from August 2.
• The world economy grew in July, after five consecutive months of contraction driven by the pandemic and its consequences.

United States:

• In the United States, which accounts for 25.5% of total confirmed cases worldwide (over 5 million confirmed cases to date), the 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases fell for the second consecutive week, by 13.2% between August 2 and August 9, to almost 55,000 — the lowest since July 9.
• On Sunday, August 9, 47,116 new cases were reported, the lowest since August 3.
• The recovered-to-confirmed cases ratio rose by 1.4 percentage points between August 2 and August 9, to 32.8%, close to the February 23 high.
• In New York State, the global epicenter of the pandemic in March and April, 70,000 tests are conducted daily. The positivity rate hovers around 1%.
• Labor market conditions in the United States continued to improve last month, with the unemployment rate declining to 10.2%.

Germany:

• The 10-day moving average of new confirmed cases continued to rise last week, by 22.3% between August 2 and August 9, to 775 (near the mid-May highs).
• The recovery-to-confirmed cases ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points between August 2 and August 9, to 90.6%, the lowest since June 2.
• The reproduction rate stood at 1.26 on August 9, according to the Robert Koch Institute.
• Germany has introduced mandatory testing at the border for people arriving from risk areas (including Bulgaria and Romania).

Dr. Andrei Radulescu, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis, Banca Transilvania