The summary of last week’s developments, based on the indicators we use to track the pandemic, is as follows:

Worldwide:

• The 10‑day moving average daily growth rate of confirmed cases was 1.8% on June 28, up from 1.76% on June 21, but still near the lows seen in early March.
• New confirmed cases reached a record on June 26, at 190,000, and the total topped 10 million on June 28. New cases climbed rapidly in the United States, Brazil and India. By contrast, Russia reported the lowest number of new infections since late April.
• The global recoveries-to-confirmed-cases ratio continued to improve, reaching almost 51% on June 28, the highest since March 12, up 1.1 percentage points from June 21.
  
  

In the US:

• The 10‑day moving average of new confirmed cases kept rising last week, up by more than 40% to a record of almost 36,000. The figures show an acceleration of new cases in southern states — Texas, Florida, Arizona and California. In Texas, the test positivity rate hit a record above 14%.
• The recoveries-to-confirmed-cases ratio reached nearly 27% in the US on June 28, down 0.4 percentage points compared with June 21.
• In New York, indicators continued to improve last week: hospitalizations fell below 800, and deaths dropped to just 5 on Saturday.
  
  

In Germany:

• The 10‑day moving average of new confirmed cases rose for a second consecutive week, by 6.4%, towards the highest level since late May. The recovered-to-confirmed ratio edged down by 0.1 percentage points, to above 91%.
• The reproduction rate declined from 2.88 (June 21) to 0.71 (June 28), according to the Robert Koch Institute.
  
  

Romania:

• On the 10‑day moving average, new cases continued to rise for a fourth consecutive week, up nearly 13% last week to 323, around the highs seen in early May.
• The recovery rate reached over 71% on June 28, up 1.2 percentage points from June 21.
• Active cases increased for a third consecutive week, by 4.7%, to 5,887, near the May 20 highs.

Dr. Andrei Radulescu, Director, Macroeconomic Analysis, Banca Transilvania