At the invitation of Termene Business Hub, Dan Dascăl, CEO of BT Asset Management, has identified three opportunities and three risks for Romania’s economy in 2026:

Three opportunities: 

1. Access to EU funds – these funds are a low-cost source of deficit financing, easing pressure on the domestic market and on borrowing costs. A large share goes to investment in infrastructure, digitizing public administration, education and healthcare, which supports long-term competitiveness. Romania should prioritize accelerating the absorption of EU funds and meeting PNRR milestones, to avoid losing access to financing.

2. Energy – investments in energy have an economic impact by lowering production costs and, in turn, boosting productivity. They also help improve the trade balance by reducing energy imports. Romania needs to continue its strategy to develop energy capacity and energy transmission infrastructure.

3. New listings on the Bucharest Stock Exchange – several IPOs are in the pipeline, including major companies from various sectors. The immediate effect would be higher liquidity on the BVB, making Romania’s capital market more attractive. At the same time, the companies coming to market would diversify their funding by raising capital. For the Romanian state, minority stake sales would ease budgetary pressures.

Three risks:

1. Political instability – there is a risk that divergences among the parties in the governing coalition will deepen, which, in an extreme scenario, could lead to the coalition breaking up and the current government losing its parliamentary majority.

With a high budget deficit, Romania needs stability to implement short- and medium-term reform plans and return to economic growth above the European average.

2. Geopolitics/external (regional) financial crisis – we are close to a conflict zone, and its resolution may require negotiations that could include territorial concessions by Ukraine/Western allies in favor of Russia.

Separately, a regional economic crisis would affect us because our economic ties are primarily with European partners. Although Romania’s debt-to-GDP level is reasonable, the interest bill as a share of GDP is high, so any potential crisis would put pressure on Romania’s financing costs. Continuing reforms provides a safety net so that, when market sentiment turns, we are in good shape and can navigate the turbulence more smoothly.

3. Persistent inflation and tight monetary policy – inflation remains elevated over the medium term, and projections could stay that way in 2026 after the VAT and excise increases and the liberalization of energy prices. In these conditions, the National Bank of Romania could keep interest rates high for longer and delay any fiscal easing until inflation cools.

High financing costs weigh on purchasing power, constrain consumption and could slow the pace of economic growth. These risks underscore the need for prudent macroeconomic policy, credible fiscal consolidation and a stable framework for access to domestic and external funding.