Economic activity remained modest at the start of 2026. The economy contracted by -1.1% YoY in Q1 2026, while on a quarterly basis GDP stabilized (0.0% QoQ, seasonally adjusted), following the sharp decline in Q4.
Inflationary pressures remained elevated, although signs of gradual moderation emerged. CPI eased slightly to 10.42% YoY in June, while monthly inflation slowed to 0.06% MoM. Services remained the main source of inflationary pressures, with prices rising by 13.67% YoY.
The budget deficit reached -2.00% of GDP in June (cash terms), almost half of last year’s figure (-3.64%). Government debt increased further to 60.1% of GDP in Q1, exceeding the 60% threshold for the first time. Economic sentiment improved during the summer, with the confidence indicator rising to 92.8 in July from 91.7 in June, although it remained below its long-term average, signaling that business and consumer expectations are still cautious.
The EUR/RON exchange rate remained broadly stable at an average of 5.24 in July, unchanged from June, indicating that FX pressures have stabilized after the adjustment seen earlier in the year. The NBR maintained the policy rate at 6.50%, while ROBOR 3M held steady at 5.84%.
The unemployment rate declined to 6.3% from 6.4% in May. The monthly trade deficit amounted to EUR 2.6bn in May, while the cumulative deficit reached EUR 13.5bn in the first five months of the year, narrowing by 6.2% YoY compared to the same period of 2025.
